A couple weeks ago I wrote about an article that discussed the future of Asia. Considering that I am currently in Thailand, it only made sense to follow that up with a discussion on what the future of Thailand looks like. Of course, that is definitely easier said than done. After all, anyone that has paid attention to the current political situation in Thailand realizes that the future of Thailand is as predictable as the stock market, earthquakes, or, well, women (just kidding). But then again, it never hurts to try.
Why does Thailand matter?
In the last post I discussed whether Asia really is the future, but let’s just say, for the sake of argument, that the future of the world rides on the coattails of Asia’s success. If this is true or not, I’m not sure, but let’s just say that it is. As mentioned in the previous post, a crucial factor for the future of Asia will be equalizing the tremendous disparity of wealth across the region.
There are many ways to depict this, but a clear indication can be seen through GDP. China (2), Japan (3), and South Korea (12) are clearly the leaders in Asia with GDP’s (according to the IMF) of $8.77 trillion, $4.16 trillion, and $1.36 trillion, respectively. The high-middle group includes countries such as (15) Indonesia (962 billion), (19) Taiwan (736 billion), and (24) Thailand (546 billion), while the low-middle group includes countries such as (30) Malaysia (384 billion), (36) Philippines (320 billion), (44) Vietnam (240 billion), and (45) Singapore (238 billion).
The bottom then drops significantly with (78) Burma (68 billion), (103) Cambodia (28 billion), and (129) Laos (13 billion).
These 3 countries are not only some of the poorest in Asia, but also in the entire world. It comes with little surprise then that each of these countries has been riddled with their own internal issues, and it will take a lot of time, support, and international assistance in order for them to get back on their feet. Instable governments, corrupt economics, and lack of basic infrastructure are only the beginning. Burma is still under military rule, Cambodia is still feeling the immense backlash from the Khmer Rouge and Pol Pot, and Laos is a communist nation, with nearly zero growth over the past 20 years.
Ok, but what do Burma, Cambodia, and Laos have to do with Thailand? Geographically, these three countries are the three bordering countries of Thailand - Cambodia to the West, Burma to the East, and Laos to the North. Their economies are intrinsically linked to the development of Thailand - as Thailand grows, so do they. Contrarily, as Thailand falters, so do they. So if there needs to be larger equality throughout the countries for Asia to succeed, and if Thailand is a major key for the success of the 3 poorest countries in the region, then it therefore could be said that Thailand is crucial to the development of the Southeast Asia.

But what about Thailand itself?
Thailand is currently in the midst of a very intense political crisis. My own opinions on the situation aside, the fact still remains that the issue has been a crucial hit to their future success. They have a plethora of their own issues to deal with before they can even potentially start to think about the future of their neighbors. In my opinion, there are two main ways that the future of Thailand can go.
The optimist
The feel throughout Bangkok is that the protests are unnecessary and that they are ruining the economy and Thailand’s international reputation. Although these might be true, the saying still goes that the sky is darkest before the dawn. These tough times for Thailand could truly bring a bright future. If political issues are resolved, and a happy medium can be found, then Thailand can begin to focus on some other internal issues, and even international issues. Of course, that’s a huge if. The question then is what is the best way for the political issues to be resolved. Many pundits say many different things ranging from military crackdown to parliament dissolution, but, personally, either extreme isn’t the right answer. Looking towards the future, the answer is to give the people a voice. A means in which to state their opinion and their beliefs without the need to resort to political demonstrations. The solution shouldn’t be something that only ends this conflict, but it should be something that could prevent conflicts in the future as well. If this solution is enacted, then the future of Thailand will be bright – leading to an increase in both foreign investment and an increase in internal development.
The pessimist
There is no doubt that the current situation is as high-pressured as can be, but individuals on both sides need to look past their present differences and look towards the future (I realize that this is highly idealistic). The solution that comes from this protest shouldn’t be a solution to only this protest, but should be something that can be instilled so as to prevent this situation from reoccurring again in the future. If this doesn’t happen, political tension will continue to daunt investors from investing in Thailand. It’s already happening that investors and businesses are pulling out and investing elsewhere for fear that tensions won’t cease anytime soon. Vietnam, for example, has experienced a large influx of investors due to this situation. It is certainly plausible for Thailand to stagnate, while Vietnam attracts investors from Japan, Korea, and China, as well as investing in Cambodia and Laos. This is certainly a far way away, but it could perceivably lead Vietnam to eventually emerge as the dominant power within Southeast Asia.
The conclusion
It is hard to tell which situation is most likely. Either can be seen as valid, while both certainly still have their flaws. It does seem though that either direction might be determined through the outcome of the current political situation. A fix of the problem, and the problem reappears in a year, or two, or five. A fix of the cause, and the problem mollifies.